Wednesday, January 11, 2006
No, really. What are you planning for?( Realistic expectations)
The good news is that many emergencies have similar results -- and most are things you can plan for.
But what should you expect?
The formula I use is this: plan for
A) things you can prepare for
B) things you can realistically expect to happen
A list for Chicago might look like this:
Top five
1. extereme cold
2. Blizzard/ snow/ rain
3. Heat
4. crowds/riots
5. ???
Under "A", this means that nuclear war is not something I worry about. Short of moving, no amount of planning is going to make me safe. Also, given my location, a terror attack of any sort is unlikely.
Under "B" -- What might happen at your location?
There are sexy disaster and then there's the weather. Guess which one's more likely?
The weather.
The ten year rule.
You should expect that if has happened in the last ten years, it will likely happen in the next ten.
Most of what we prepare for is quite boring & predictable.
Location, location, location.
On the micro level, you should know what to expect -- if you're in a flood plain, expect flooding.
But what should you expect?
The formula I use is this: plan for
A) things you can prepare for
B) things you can realistically expect to happen
A list for Chicago might look like this:
Top five
1. extereme cold
2. Blizzard/ snow/ rain
3. Heat
4. crowds/riots
5. ???
Under "A", this means that nuclear war is not something I worry about. Short of moving, no amount of planning is going to make me safe. Also, given my location, a terror attack of any sort is unlikely.
Under "B" -- What might happen at your location?
There are sexy disaster and then there's the weather. Guess which one's more likely?
The weather.
The ten year rule.
You should expect that if has happened in the last ten years, it will likely happen in the next ten.
Most of what we prepare for is quite boring & predictable.
Location, location, location.
On the micro level, you should know what to expect -- if you're in a flood plain, expect flooding.
